By Anthony H. Cordesman
The Maghreb--Morocco, Algeria, Libya, and Tunisia--is a quarter overburdened by means of pointless army costs. regardless of power civil conflicts and militarized regimes in a couple of nations within the zone, there are literally few real exterior threats, and the militia are actually principally used to keep up inner security.
A targeted country-by-country review of the effectiveness of army forces, and their impression on neighborhood economics, exhibits that the quarter is still a mosaic of conflicting nationwide targets, yet strategic goals were supplanted via inner conflicts, tensions, and politics. Declining army budgets are resulting in declining army energy and strength, yet they belie the Maghreb's capability for armed clash and human discomfort. even if the Maghreb is a provider of oil and ordinary fuel, which typically guarantees the eye of the West, this tragedy of hands will get little recognition from the surface global. which means the clients for the zone are persisted wasteful army spending, and the consequent damage to nationwide financial and political health.
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Additional info for A Tragedy of Arms: Military and Security Developments in the Maghreb
The end result will be a steady decline in the operational readiness of older types of equipment and growing problems in supporting the overall force mix in combat. Given Algeria’s and Libya’s limited revenues, both states are likely to drop in net military effectiveness, even though they may acquire enough equipment to have an apparent increase in force strength. Introduction to a Tragedy 21 • The internal tensions within each country’s military forces will make military politics more important than military effectiveness.
Most of these reserves, however, have extremely poor training and equipment and have very little war-ﬁghting capability, and the numbers claimed grossly exaggerate what each nation can actually call up in any combat effective manner. The Polisario, Morocco’s opponent in the war for the control of the Western Sahara, has signiﬁcantly less than 10,000 combat effectives, and its numbers in every equipment category are so small that they are not included in the ﬁgures. The level of manning in each country’s naval forces is more comparable.
There is no guarantee that this will happen, however, and it is impossible to rule out a long-term return to some form of arms race, or conﬂict, between Algeria and Morocco. • Libya will continue its failure to properly man and modernize its military forces, in spite of the suspension of UN sanctions in 1999. As the analysis later in this book shows, it will continue to seek weapons of mass destruction. These Libyan efforts will pressure the other states in the region to maintain higher levels of military spending than they desire.
A Tragedy of Arms: Military and Security Developments in the Maghreb by Anthony H. Cordesman
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